April 10, 2025

“In every scenario we tested, Congresswoman Underwood is the strongest potential candidate if Sen. Durbin were to retire”

(Philadelphia, Pennsylvania) — Earlier this week, 314 Action Fund released the findings from a new poll on the Illinois Senate race, clearly showing Representative Lauren Underwood (IL-14), a nurse and public health expert, leading the ballot, should Senator Dick Durbin retire. In every single scenario, voters trusted Rep. Underwood over the rest of the candidates.


If Sen. Durbin retires, the Illinois Senate primary will be one of the most-watched races in the nation.


Here’s what national and local news outlets are saying about 314 Action’s poll:


NBC Chicago: Who could replace Sen. Durbin if he retires? Lauren Underwood leads in new poll


Rose Schmidt and Mary Ann Ahern
04/08/25


Key points:
Organizing efforts were done almost entirely behind the scenes until Tuesday, when the campaign team for U.S. Rep. Lauren Underwood, a Democrat from Naperville, sent out a fundraising email proclaiming she is “gearing up and getting ready here on the campaign side” should Durbin retire.


If that happens, Underwood would lead the Senate Democratic primary, according to a new poll commissioned by 314 Action Fund. In March, pollsters surveyed 773 likely 2026 Democratic primary voters in Illinois. They found that Underwood has the highest name recognition of the candidates in the field.


“In every scenario we tested, Congresswoman Underwood is the strongest potential candidate if Sen. Durbin were to retire,” said Erik Polyak, the managing director of 314 Action.


He added that his [group] would like to see a “next generation STEM leader.” Underwood is a registered nurse.


In a four-way ballot with U.S. Reps. Robin Kelly and Raja Krishnamoorthi plus Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton, Underwood had 33 percent of the vote, while Krishnamoorthi had 30 percent, Stratton had 16 percent and Kelly had 10 percent. The remaining 10 percent of voters were undecided.


“You’re going to have a lot of people in Illinois who are making very hard choices about what their future looks like in the political sphere. They’re going to have to give up seats in order to join this primary,” Abudayyeh said.


When voters were provided with more information about the candidates, Underwood’s lead increased to 42 percent of the vote compared to Krishnamoorthi’s 25 percent, Stratton’s 19 percent and Kelly’s 9 percent. Four percent were undecided.


If Kelly decided not to run, Underwood would pick up 45 percent of her voters. In the three-way ballot, 39 percent of voters would support Underwood, 32 percent would support Krishnamoorthi and 19 percent would support Stratton.


Capitol Fax: Underwood fundraising on poll results showing she’d lead the race for Durbin’s seat


Rich Miller
04/08/25


Key points:
A new poll commissioned by 314 Action Fund shows that Representative Lauren Underwood (IL-14), a nurse and public health expert, leads the Illinois Senate ballot in every test, should Senator Dick Durbin retire. In a potential four-way race, a three-way race, and after introducing each candidate’s biography, Representative Underwood stood above the rest to Illinois voters.


“Senator Dick Durbin has been an unrivaled champion for Illinois who has worked tirelessly to deliver for the state and has earned the right to decide what is best for himself, his family, and the future of the state,” said Erik Polyak, Managing Director of 314 Action. “Should he decide not to run for reelection, it’s clear Illinois is ready for a new generation of leadership and we are excited by the possibilities.”


In the initial 4-way ballot, Representative Underwood and Representative Krishnamoorthi are statistically tied with 33% and 30%, respectively, followed by 16% for Lieutenant Governor Stratton and 10% for Representative Kelly. The remaining 10% are undecided.


If Representative Kelly was not to run, Representative Underwood picks up the most of her voters, with 45% of her voters moving to Underwood.


In the 3-way ballot, Representative Underwood leads by 7 points – 39% to 32% for Krishnamoorthi, and 19% for Stratton.


After providing voters with more information about each of the candidates, pulling from bio information each candidate has used, Representative Underwood extends her lead in the 4-way ballot, with 42% of the vote, followed by Representative. Krishnamoorthi at 25%, Stratton at 19%, 9% supporting Kelly, and 4% are undecided.


Representative Underwood has the highest name ID of the field – 77% of primary voters identify her by name, 57% know her well enough to offer an opinion of her, and those opinions are almost entirely positive – 53% favorable, 4% unfavorable, 20% neutral.


Punchbowl News: The post-Durbin Illinois Senate primary heats up


Max Cohen
04/09/25


Key points:
The primary dynamic spilled into the open this week, motivated by the buzz around a poll commissioned by Democratic group 314 Action that excluded Durbin. The poll has Reps. Lauren Underwood (D-Ill.) and Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.) in the top tier of contenders with 33% and 30% support respectively, ahead of Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton at 16% and Rep. Robin Kelly (D-Ill.) at 10%.


On the heels of the poll, Underwood’s team sent out a fundraising appeal to donors touting the numbers. “We’re gearing up and getting ready here on the campaign side,” the email said, the clearest indication that Underwood is prepping for a statewide bid.


Politico Illinois Playbook: 7 things holding up transit bill


Shia Kapos
04/08/25


Key points:
314 Action Fund is out with toplines from a new poll of likely voters in a potential race for the U.S. Senate should Sen. Dick Durbin decide not to seek re-election. It shows Congresswoman Lauren Underwood leading in two different scenarios, according to the toplines.


In a race with Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton and Congressmembers Raja Krishnamoorthi and Robin Kelly, Underwood and Krishnamoorthi are statistically tied at 33 percent and 30 percent respectively, according to 314 Action Fund.


In a three-way race without Kelly, Underwood has a 7-point lead — 39 percent to 32 percent — over Krishnamoorthis, with Stratton at 19 percent.


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